Microsoft says Russian interference in US elections is already underway, and it’s more effective than you think

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Ahead of the US election later this year, interference campaigns have already begun, with both Russia and China doing their best to manipulate voter opinions, Microsoft has said.

Micosofts’ Threat Analysis Center (MTAC), which tracks disinformation campaigns run by Russia, China and Iran, disclosed the first trickles of manipulation on its blog. 

The report notes Russia and China each have their own techniques for distributing disinformation and making it appear legitimate to Western audiences.

Sock Puppets vs Democracy

Russia’s priority remains on eroding US support for Ukraine, in order to delay or cancel the arms that Ukraine desperately needs, with the current hold up on the $61 billion package having a noticeably detrimental effect on the front lines in Ukraine.

China however is more focussed on further splitting an already polarized society, and sowing distrust in the US democratic system most likely in an attempt to legitimize the inevitable claims of voter fraud that will emerge pre and post election.

So far, Russian actors such as Storm-1516 have favored using whistleblowers or citizen journalists who will call out apparent inconsistencies or falsehoods (many of which are untrue themselves) in a video on social media.

This video is then picked up by Russia-affiliated news websites who inflate the video’s audience and provide some legitimacy to the video’s claims. Once this coverage is shared far and wide across the global network, Russian officials, expats and travelers will further share the coverage of the video.

By ‘laundering’ the original video in this way, the claims within the video end up being read and spread by Western audiences, who will likely not know the origin of the video.

(Image credit: Microsoft / MTAC)

 China, on the other hand, favors the use of sock puppets – social media accounts that appear to be legitimate, with activity and photos that make it behave like the audience it is attempting to target – which spread disinformation with convincing captions that make them appear as legitimate American voters.

(Image credit: Microsoft / MTAC)

One particular thing to note as we get closer to the US election is the prominence of AI-enhanced content, which MTAC advises is far more effective at manipulating audiences than high production AI-generated deep-faked videos.

It is far easier to enhance or manipulate existing images and videos with AI than it is to generate new content with AI, and the end result is often more convincing. But MTAC says that AI audio is far more convincing than video, particularly if the audio that has been manipulated or generated sounds as though it is from a private setting, such as a phone call or private conversation.

Iran is yet to begin its influence campaigns, and while the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East may have delayed or disrupted any planned interference, Iran typically holds back until the last second to launch its influence campaigns which will likely be fuelled by content relating to Iran’s conflict with Israel.

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